Morgan Stanley issued a report stating thatcrashdrive3switchRed Sea Airlines blocked and delayed the arrival of the shipping downward cycle. Supply-side risks are accumulating, but they will be absorbed in the short term by shipping diversions and strong demand.
The bank raised its profit forecast for OOCL this year and next by 36% and 32%, and raised COSCO Haikong (601919)'s profit forecast for the same period by 98% and 61%. The bank also raised its profit forecast for Haifeng International this year and next by 26% and 5%, but lowered its 2026 profit forecast by 3%.
The bank significantly raised the target prices of the above three shipping stocks. Haifeng Internationalcrashdrive3switchTarget price from 14crashdrive3switch.6 HKD increased to 18crashdrive3switch.2 Hong Kong dollars, COSCO Haikong's target price was raised from HK$6.5 to HK$13.2, and Orient Overseas's target price was raised from HK$75 to HK$114, reflecting the upward revision of this year's earnings forecast and the possibility of a relatively balanced bull and bear markets. The bank estimates that for every 5% increase in shipping freight rates, the profit forecast will be raised by 20% to 25%. Among them, COSCO Haikong has a higher revenue risk exposure to spot shipping freight rates.
