White Sugar: Brazil's squeezing Progress affects short-term Market sentiment
Raw sugar: the price of raw sugar is low this week. Germany 2024x25 sugar beet sown area increased by 6.Freepokergames.5%FreepokergamesUp to 42Freepokergames. 160000 hectares. The production of India's Massachusetts 23mp 24 crushing season is over.FreepokergamesA total of 107.308 million tons of sugarcane were pressed, an increase of 1.66% over the same period last year; total sugar production was 11.017 million tons, an increase of 4.38% over the same period last year; and the average sugar yield was 10.27%, an increase of 0.29% over 9.98% in the last crushing season.
Domestic: Guangxi spot quotation 6500-6520 yuan / ton, slightly lower than last week. The estimated price of imports within the quota is 5140-5150 yuan / ton; the estimated price of imports outside the quota is 6560-6570 yuan / ton.
Imports: in April 2024, China imported a total of 190900 tons of three categories of commodities under tariff No. 170290, an increase of 11700 tons or 6.53% over the same period last year. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 516700 tons of three categories of commodities under tariff number 170290, an increase of 27000 tons or 5.51 percent over the same period last year. As of April, China imported a total of 932000 tons of three categories of commodities under tariff number 170290, an increase of 258400 tons or 38.36 percent over the same period last year.
Summary: the main concern in the current raw sugar market is Brazil. Brazil is about to release crushing data for the first half of May. Platts expects 41.4 million to 52.2 million tons of sugarcane crushing in south-central Brazil in the first half of May, with a total average crushing capacity of 44.86 million tons, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year. Sugar production is expected to be 50.57%, up from 48.16% the previous year; sugar production is expected to be 2.7 million tons, up 6.3% from the same period last year; ethanol production is expected to be 1.97 billion litres, up 1% from the same period last year. The rapid increase in production has put pressure on the current market and prices are cautious. From a further point of view, each of the major producing countries in the 24 stroke 25 extraction season is expected to increase production to varying degrees, if the late weather has no significant impact, the yield increase in the next extraction season is the main tone.
Domestic sugar sales are still dominated by domestic sugar sales, pro-price sales, due to low inventory in the future group sales pressure. With the passage of time, import licensing will be liberalized, sugar sources will become diversified, before the direction of raw sugar does not change, continue to hold short thinking.
Cotton: multi-factor resonance, internal and external cotton price rebounding
1. On the supply side: global cotton production is expected to increase in 2024amp 25, with more rainfall in the main cotton-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere and rising water due to weather factors.
2. Demand side: in the new year, global cotton consumption is expected to increase on a low base compared with the same period last year, domestic textile service consumption has entered the off-season, terminal consumption is weak, and the start-up load of textile enterprises has declined compared with the previous year.
3. Import and export: the high price difference between internal and external prices of imported cotton fell, and cotton imports decreased in April, but it still reached a new high in the same period in recent years.
4. Inventory side: at present, domestic textiles and clothing are in a passive accumulation stage, the inventory of finished products in textile enterprises gradually accumulates, the total inventory of cotton is abundant, and the inventory of cotton yarn in weaving mills decreases.
5, the international market: the macro-level impact continues, the long-short forces are still intertwined, the weather "disturbance" appears, and the cotton price rebounds slightly. The market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut continue to change, and there is a strong response to the news. The minutes of the Fed's May interest rate meeting are partial, and it is expected that the impact at the macro level will continue and repeat for a long time in the future. Fundamentally, the market focuses on the new year, which is the growing season of cotton planting in the Northern Hemisphere. although the weather "disturbance" is late, there has been more rainfall in the main producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere recently, although the proportion of arid areas has continued to decline. however, too much rainfall has led to market concerns about cotton planting progress and growth status, even if we think the impact is limited, but the market sentiment has been reflected, after the US cotton futures price fell to the previous low. It continues to rebound, but it is still treated as a rebound rather than a reversal, and we maintain our expectations of a loose global cotton supply and demand pattern in the new year. After the weather "disturbance" recedes, it is expected that it is difficult to come from the macro level in the medium and long term, the fundamental support is weak, the space above the short-term cotton price rebound is limited, and it is expected that it will still be under pressure in the medium and long term.
6. Domestic market: cotton is lack of directional drive. There are not many stories to tell this year. At present, cotton stocks are still relatively abundant, and cotton imports have increased significantly compared with the same period last year. In theory, there is no worry about stock shortage of cotton this year, but it should be noted that domestic commercial cotton stocks fell sharply in March and April, about 1 million tons. If the decline is maintained later (deviating from body feeling), we cannot rule out some rumors about stocks before the new cotton goes on the market. Looking forward to the new year, the domestic cotton planting area has only slightly decreased compared with the same period last year, but the weather condition is good, the per unit yield should be increased compared with the same period last year, and the total output should also increase to a certain extent. The demand side has entered the off-season of textile and clothing consumption, the start-up load of textile enterprises has declined seasonally, and it still takes some time for terminal consumption to recover, and the demand side has a certain drag on cotton prices. Periodically, at present, China's textiles and clothing are in a passive replenishment stage, and it is expected that the current situation will be maintained at least until the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter, and clothing inventory is expected to increase significantly. China's textiles and clothing may enter the active destocking stage in the third quarter. It is expected that consumption is weak, inventory growth will be maintained for a long time, in the medium to long term, cotton prices lack of substantial upward power, short-term shock operation is still the main.
7. Attention: macro, weather, inventory.
Disclaimer
The information in this report comes from public materials, and our company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information, nor does it guarantee that the information and recommendations contained will not be changed. The report is only for professional investors among our customers. We have strived to be objective and impartial in the content of the report, but the views, conclusions and suggestions in this article are for reference only, and the information or opinions in the report do not constitute the basis for the operation of the varieties mentioned in the report. any investment decisions made by investors have nothing to do with the company and the author.