luckytigercasino60nodeposit| [Changhe Report] Oil Weekly 20240524: Domestic spot is light

Macroscopic important news

[foreign attention

International market

1. Palm oil

[institutional data]

ExitLuckytigercasino60nodepositAmSpecAgri, a shipping survey agency, said on Wednesday that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 20 were 814031 tons, down 9% from the previous month.Luckytigercasino60nodeposit.58%; ITS, a shipping survey agencyLuckytigercasino60nodepositThe data show that the export volume is 830608 tons from January to 20, down 8% from the previous month.Luckytigercasino60nodeposit.27% SGS data show that the export volume from January to 20 was 647353 tons, down 13.2% from the previous month.

Production: according to the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Compressor Association (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 27.10% from May 1 to 20, 2024, oil production decreased by 0.16%, and production increased by 26%. MPOA data show that the whole horse production increased by 18.12% from May 1 to 20 compared with the previous month.

[precipitation in producing areas]

The overall accumulated precipitation in Indonesia and Malaysia in April is about 280mm and 180mm, respectively, which is the middle level of the past 10 years. In the next two weeks, the overall precipitation is sufficient, which is above the historical average level.

Previous floods in parts of Sumatra due to excessive precipitation have not had a significant impact on the area where the plantation is located, while future forecasts show a relative decrease in precipitation at the end of the month and are expected to have a limited impact on production in the short term.

Production in Southeast Asia is still mainly focused on the lack of precipitation in individual regions of Indonesia from August to September last year (the 10-year low of monthly cumulative precipitation), which brings potential storytelling opportunities in Indonesia from June to July this year.

[export market]

FOB market quotation remained stable this week, Indonesia 24-degree refining price remained around $850 in recent months, Malay Indonesia price gap widened slightly this week, the market focused on the arrival of production season to reflect the pressure to sell goods in the production area.

2. International market for sticking water

The international market of sunflower oil in Europe and the Black Sea region is strong, and the oil product gap continues to widen. Due to the continuous low price of sunflower seeds and rapeseed in the first quarter, the supply pressure has subsided since the second quarter. In addition, the recent continued strength of sunflower oil is mainly due to the uncertainty of sunflower seed production expectations affected by the weather and slow sales progress in the new season. Soybean oil is supported by logistics factors in South America FOB quotation is still strong. The palm oil end-producing areas are facing the season of increasing production, selling goods actively and the price is weak.

3. Indian oil

As of May 15, India's oil port inventory has increased month-on-month. Among them, crude palm oil is 245400 tons, refining is 113500 tons, soybean oil is 131400 tons, sunflower oil is 199500 tons. With the increase in the arrival of palm oil in Hong Kong, inventories continued to rise in mid-May.

Domestic oil and fat

1. Inventory performance

According to Mysteel, as of May 17, 2024 (week 20), commercial stocks of soybean oil in key areas of the country were 860800 tons, an increase of 11900 tons, or 1.40%, over the previous week. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 398780 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons, or 0.24 percent, compared with last week; and a decrease of 202800 tons, or 33.71 percent, from 601600 tons last year. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from major oil factories in eastern China is about 298600 tons, an increase of 13400 tons and 4.70 percent over the previous week.

2. Coastal rapeseed

In the 20th week of 2024, the rapeseed crushing capacity of major oil factories in coastal areas was 146000 tons, with an opening rate of 41.63% this week. The inventory of rapeseed in major oil factories in coastal areas was 42.8t, down 65000 t from last week; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 90,000 t, an increase of 2000 t over last week; and the unexecuted contract was 262000 t, down 7000 t from last week. The stock of rapeseed meal was 31500 tons, an increase of 2800 tons over the previous week, while the unexecuted contract was 196000 tons, an increase of 7600 tons over the previous week.

3. Domestic import

China imported 150000 tons of palm oil in April, down 34.4% from a year earlier, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 18. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 700000 tons, down 43.3% from the same period last year. China imported 150000 tons of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in April, down 50.2 per cent from a year earlier. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 670000 tons, down 15.1% from the same period last year.

Palm oil: the price of 24-degree palm oil for South China has stabilized this week. As of the 24th, 24-degree palm oil quoted US $893 / ton for the June shipping date in South China, which is basically the same as last week. 6-10 palm oil ships were traded in China this week, mainly in June and July. At present, it is more sufficient to buy ships in the past 3 months, and follow up to pay attention to the arrival of palm oil and the inflection point of inventory.

Rapeseed: the average weekly price of CNF plus rapeseed is about US $10 higher than the previous week. As of the 24th, the shipping price from September to November is US $588 / ton. In terms of buying ships, several rapeseed were sold in China from August to October this week; from May to August, there are enough ships to buy, and follow-up attention will be paid to the actual arrival rhythm and oil plant start-up arrangements.

4. Spot market

The domestic spread market as a whole remained weak this week. In terms of beans, soybeans are concentrated in Hong Kong, while palm oil and vegetables are also faced with accelerated efforts to buy ships at home, and it is expected to suppress the basis when they arrive in Hong Kong. Spot transactions, Mysteel data, soybean oil weekly turnover of 89000 tons, down nearly 100000 tons from the previous month; palm oil market turnover of 5900 tons, an increase of 5200 tons; rapeseed oil market turnover this week light. Overall turnover in the oil market declined this week, with no bright spot apparent demand and supply recovery expectations weighing on the spot basis.

5. follow-up supply and demand

Ship buying in the palm oil market has accelerated in recent months, soybean arrival is expected to increase, and rapeseed buying is sufficient. Overall, the performance of oil supply is expected to be further loosened. Judging from the current price, as the supply recovery situation is relatively clear, the long-month basis difference and disk monthly difference are expected to trade in Hong Kong ahead of schedule, showing a weak market at the bottom as a whole, while there is still uncertainty in the actual arrival and start-up of oil plants. Pay attention to the bottom of soybean oil and rape oil in September / January.

Source: WIND, Reuters, EIA,MPOB,Mysteel, press release, COFCO