People's joys and sorrows are not the same. The issuance of Xinji is still at a freezing point, but some funds have begun to restrict their purchases.
According to Wind data, as of May 15, more than 1000 funds have suspended large applications this year, and some of them have even completely closed their doors. Bond funds account for 49% of the funds, 26% of the funds are money funds, 11% are equity funds, and a small number of FOF and alternative investment funds.
Unexpectedly, the purchase of money funds has also been restricted. However, after taking a look at the recent extremely loose liquidity in the money market, I am relieved that the rate of return on short-end assets, as the main allocation of money funds, has declined obviously, and the implementation of purchase restrictions by the fund can prevent the seven-day annualized income from falling too fast. dilute the income of the original holder.
But what the heck is the non-goods fund? Although scale is the enemy of fund performance, fund companies all point to collecting management fees to make a living. Why didn't the fund company want the money this time? Not optimistic about the future market? Is the size of the fund growing too fast? Or is it because of love and responsibility!
Which funds are in the purchase restriction?
Although the essence of fund restrictions is to persuade you not to buy, the reasons behind the restrictions are different, including "beta funds" that have been bought out, "high alpha funds" that are growing too fast, and "self-abandoning funds" that are not optimistic about the future market.
Beta type
Beta, you can understand it as the average score of the students in the class. Just as the average score of each class varies from high to low, there are great differences in the beta of various assets. For example, A shares are famous in recent years, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 26% in the past three years, while bonds and QDII (take Nasdaq as an example) have yielded 7% respectively in the same period.Largestpowerballjackpotever.78%, 12.42%. (2021.02.22-2024.02.05)
If there is no contrast, there will be no harm. The longer the contrast, the deeper the injury. With the mentality of joining if you can't beat it, bond funds have increased their share by 1.7 trillion in the last year, and QDII funds have been bought at a premium of more than 40% (50ETF in the United States).
But good bonds are as rare as the moon in the sky. Funds are pouring in, high-quality, stable sources of securities have been robbed, fund managers can only choose the second best to buy some bonds that they do not like, but will passively increase some risks. At the same time, if the scale of the bond fund is too large, it will not only directly dilute the income of the original holder, but also lead to the mismatch between the fund manager's investment strategy and scale, reduce the effectiveness of the strategy, and then affect the performance. The pony pulls the cart, not only funny, the horse is tired.
As for the QDII fund, the purchase restriction is due to the outstanding performance of the external market and everyone wants good things, but the foreign exchange quota is limited and is bought out of stock by everyone, especially after the recent collapse of Asian currencies, domestic foreign exchange controls will be more stringent.
High alpha type
Alpha represents the ability of a fund manager to make more money than others. This ability of fund managers will be infinitely magnified in a bear market. for example, the fund bought by others is gaining, but what you buy is losing money, while others lose 10%, but you halve it.
The consequence is that the foundation whose alpha is not obvious is scolded by everyone, and the foundation with high alpha is sought after by everyone. Among the 109 equity funds restricted this time, there are 77 equity funds (partial stock mix, common stock, flexible allocation). The average return of these funds so far this year is 2.96%, significantly outperforming the partial stock mixed fund index (1.12%).
Ye Yong, a Wanjia fund, for example, has earned 28.81% so far this year. This fund manager is good at defense and may fall behind slightly in a bull market, but in a bear market, it is very reassuring. The income in the last three years is 36%, and the market ranks 16x1938. The capacity circle is mainly in the cycle sector, and the current position is concentrated in the energy and metal sector.
Although the size of the fund under management is only about 5 billion, this year, ten thousand funds have already put a burden on Ye Yong, adding two new funds (2 billion). Now the purchase restriction may be to give Ye Yong enough time to digest the scale change.
Another example is Jingshun Great Wall Fund Bao Wuwei, which has earned 21.58% so far this year. Bao Wu is a "value style" fund manager, and he is also a more fund manager mentioned by everyone in the past two years, mainly because his performance is too good in a bear market, and he has "positive returns" every year for the past five years. It has become a "warm current" in the cold market. At present, as long as the position is concentrated in the energy metal sector, and the concentration of shares is relatively high.
This purchase restriction may be because the unmanageable scale of Bao has reached 20 billion, of which 3 billion is the increase in the first quarter of this year. The purchase restriction is intended to control the pace of scale growth.
Self-abandoning type
In this restricted fund, in addition to outstanding performance, there are also performance eye-catching, but also the most conscientious, thank you not to kill grace, it is necessary to give them a knock, they through self-exploding performance, abandon in the market.
These funds are mainly quantitative funds with heavy positions in micro-disk stocks. Under the high standards of Guojiutiao, the situation of micro-stocks will become more and more serious in the future, and even fund managers will wake up with St shares packed with entire positions. Now the purchase restriction may be a warning.
For example, Jinyuan Shun'an Fund's Jinyuan Shun'an Industry selection, the income so far this year is-32.14%, this is a micro-disk stock fund, the position is scattered, single shares account for no more than 2%, although it is a bit of a quantitative fund, but this fund continues to use the micro-disk stock Shenji "fund Yuanshun Anyuanqi" strategy (tracking microdisk stock index).
However, when people are unlucky to drink cold water to plug their teeth, this fund was set up in December last year. In January this year, the position was ready for a big fight, and then the micro-disk stock collapsed, and the one-dollar fund fell to more than 50 cents. This was when he joined the national army in 49. I didn't catch up when I was eating meat, and I didn't miss a meal when I was beaten. I guess the fund manager himself wants to find a place to be quiet.
The purchase of high-performance funds is restricted, is there a replacement?
The scallop ran away.LargestpowerballjackpoteverWe may not know where to look, but it's no big deal to find a few of the more than 3700 fund managers with similar styles.
Ye Yong's replacement: Zhang Heng of Wanjia Fund and Cai Murong of Huabao Fund. Let's focus on Zhang Heng, who is closest to Ye Yong. Although the fund manager also uses cyclical industries as his ability circle, his positions are more balanced. Coal, steel, machinery, chemicals, military industry, finance, and real estate will all be allocated in stages. The annualized income in the past three years is about 15%. The key is that the fund manager's current size is only 527 million yuan, and its strategic capacity is relatively large. Although it will not be rich, it can also be safe when it is small.
Bao Wuwu's replacement: Cao Mingchang of China-Europe Fund, Xu Yan of Dacheng Fund, and Yang Xinxin of ICBC Credit Suisse Fund. Of course, these three value celebrities have not outperformed Bao Wuwu in the past three years, but before this year's market low, the performance of the four fund managers was almost exactly the same. This time, we will focus on Xu Yan, whose retracement and performance can slightly keep up with Bao Wuwu.
Xu Yan of Dacheng Fund is one of the few fund managers in the market with experience in managing social security and pension portfolios (risk-oriented), public and private equity (performance-oriented), which also gives him the ability to easily travel through bulls and bears. Taking Dacheng's Competitive Advantage A as an example, the fund has almost had positive returns every year in the past five years. The only negative return was a loss of only 1.34% in 2022. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by nearly 20% during the same period.
Here are his winning secrets: position timing, balanced allocation, and preference for low valuations. First, he quietly reduced his position in the second half of the 2020 blue-chip market (From 90% to 60%), the rapid retreat has continued to this day. If it were not for the restrictions on stock fund types,(The shareholding ratio cannot be less than 60%.) It is estimated that he wants to short positions, and the bear market in the next three years has also verified his view; secondly, he basically will not place a heavy position in a certain industry for a long time. In just three years, Xu Yan has bought a total of 695 stocks, covering all Shenwan-level industries (31); finally, it is the persistence of value fund managers-buying stocks with cheap valuations and waiting for the return of value.
Of course, just as there are no two identical leaves on a tree, the stocks held by fund managers of the same style will vary widely.
For example, they are all value investments. Zhang Kun of E Fund used to like to buy liquor, but later placed some Hong Kong stocks; Lin Yingrui of Guangfa Fund used aviation and liquor in his right; and Bao Wuwu of Invesco Great Wall Fund, which is restricted this time, is more benevolent and has a rotating configuration of real estate, media, energy, and metal.
Therefore, if we want to find a replacement for the fund, we can also select through the fund's heavy stocks. For example, the Invesco Great Wall Fund has no management of Invesco Great Wall State-owned Enterprise Value A. The top two major positions held in this period are Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil, accounting for more than 19% in total. The two stocks that also hold higher positions in these two stocks can be used as short-term swaps if they hold Dongfanghong Qiheng for three years (18.95%) and Fuguo Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen performance-driven (17.48%).
Everything is a cycle, and the issuance of equity funds is still hovering near the freezing point. So do you think entering now is considered buying where no one cares?