Non-ferrous metalBaccaratwizardOh, it's up again!
Today (May 20) morning, it won all the leaders in the non-ferrous metals industry.BaccaratwizardThe floor price of ETF (159876), the colored leader, increased by 3%, up 2.25% as of press time. It is worth noting that the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index tracked by non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) has risen 38% since the market started on February 6, up to May 17.Baccaratwizard.98%, substantially outperformed the Prev (16Baccaratwizard.72%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (14.92%) and other major wide-base indices.
On the news, Lunn Copper rose another 2.79% last Friday to close at US $10715 / ton, a new high since its listing. On the same day, the London Metal Exchange basic metals (copper, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin, zinc) rose across the board.
Focusing on gold, a popular variety, COMEX gold has risen again since May 9, rising 4.2% as of last Friday, the weekly line rose for the second consecutive week, and gold prices rebounded to an April high. Over a longer period of time, since the gold market started on March 1, it has risen 17.77% as of yesterday. For the next trend of gold, a number of institutions and analysts said that the gold price still has room to rise in the future, or will sprint 2500 US dollars / ounce. At present, the overall market is clearly biased towards gold bulls.
According to the Financial Associated Press, a number of gold stores quickly raised the retail price of gold over the weekend. at present, the price of gold jewelry of various brands in China has reached 740 yuan per gram, and the prices of many gold stores have set new records.
Soochow Securities Research News said that due to the impact of rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and Israel's attack on eastern Rafah, cease-fire negotiations failed, resulting in renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East, gold prices at home and abroad are moving well, and gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the future.
Looking to the future, Debang Securities pointed out that in 2024, with the global monetary environment changing from tight to loose and the domestic economy gradually repaired, the non-ferrous metal plate may usher in excess returns, with the elastic strength in the order of precious metals > copper > small metals > aluminum > rare earths. At the same time, focus on the field of new non-ferrous materials.
1) Precious metals. At the end of the interest rate increase in the United States, the expectation of interest rate cut is gradually rising, the decline in real interest rates highlights the allocation value of gold, and silver is more flexible in the long term.
2) Industrial metals. Policies promote economic expectations to continue to improve, and the prices of industrial metals related to the domestic economy are expected to pick up, with the following elasticity: copper > small metals > aluminum > rare earths.
3) New materials. It is optimistic about seven major fields, such as artificial intelligence materials, upstream magnetic materials for humanoid robots, consumer electronics folding screen parts, titanium alloy materials, intelligent automobile parts, and satellite / superconducting materials.
According to public data, according to the caliber of Shenwan's third-tier industry, copper, aluminum and gold are the top three major industries in the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by ETF (159876), accounting for 24.1%, 16.7% and 14.7% respectively, accounting for more than 50%. It is expected to benefit from the rally in gold, as well as from the commodity rally cycle.
Sources of data and charts: Wind, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Warburg Fund, etc.
Note: the rise and fall of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years is: 2019, 24.48%; 2020, 35.84%; 2021, 35.89%; 2022,-19.22%; 2023,-10.43%.
Risk tip: non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) passively track the CSI non-ferrous metals index (930708.CSI), the index base date is 2013.12.31, the release date is 2015.7.13, the composition of index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. In this article, the index stocks are only shown, and the individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors, the appropriate matching opinions should be based on the sales organization. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.