Source: Grain and Oil Market News
Grassroots grain source sales are coming to an end. Recently, grassroots grain source sales in North China are coming to an end, grain sources continue to be concentrated among traders, and the pace of channel supply has slowed down. The number of vehicles arriving for deep processing in Shandong has decreased significantly compared with before May Day, and the average daily number of vehicles arriving in the half month after the holiday has dropped by nearly 50% compared with the pre-holiday period. Some grain-consuming enterprises have just needed to raise prices to purchase under the background of low inventory, and the market sentiment has shown signs of recovery. Taking the deep processing enterprise in Weifang, Shandong Province as an example, the purchase price on May 10 was 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the end of April. If this trend continues, it will be conducive to the effective circulation of grain sources from north to south.
The transaction rate of corn purchased by China Grain Reserve decreased. Judging from the intensity of China's grain storage procurement, it has experienced from mid-to-late March to early April.deuceswildfreeslotsAfter a brief decline in 2010, the purchase volume has continued to increase significantly again since mid-April, and has remained at a high level until now, and the intensity has exceeded the purchase peak in March.
In terms of details, the recent procurement turnover rate has begun to increase. For example, on May 10, only 9% of the sales were sold in the special corn purchase session of Jilin Branch, and on the 11th, all corn purchased by Jilin Branch went unsold. The above signs indicate that domestic corn prices are expected to increase.
The rebound in international food prices may drive domestic corn prices to accelerate the bottom. Driven by external weather speculation and warming macro sentiment, U.S. corn futures prices have continued to fluctuate and rise from their January 2024 lows, with an increase of 6%. The futures prices of U.S. wheat and U.S. soybeans also increased significantly from previous lows. In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of global corn supply estimates for 2024/2025 are approximately 2.5 percent lower than average expectationsdeuceswildfreeslots.1%, adding a positive factor to corn. At present, the trends of corn at home and abroad are converging, and the strong rebound in international grain prices may drive domestic corn prices to accelerate the bottom.
To sum up, after recent positive factors have been accumulated, the impact has gradually emerged. The possibility of a phased bottom in domestic corn prices increases. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the impact of changes in the price of wheat and the purchase actions of China's grain reserves on corn prices. (The original text was published on the third page of the Grain and Oil Market News on May 16, 2024)