The price of copper has hit a new high again!
Since this yearCreditcardrouletteThe commodity market moved strongly in 2003. The prices of precious metals represented by gold and silver and non-ferrous metals represented by copper and zinc have risen significantly. Wind data displayCreditcardrouletteBy the close of trading on May 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange Shanghai Gold Index had risen 16%.Creditcardroulette.13%, the Shanghai Bank Index rose 23%.Creditcardroulette.21%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 19.04%, the Shanghai Aluminum Index rose 5.27%, and the Shanghai Zinc Index rose 11.31%.
The rise in commodity markets also led to a rise in resource stocks. The share prices of listed companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets, gold, non-ferrous and other related industries have also performed well since the beginning of this year. For ordinary investors, the best way to seize investment opportunities in commodity markets is to allocate resource-themed ETF.
Commodities are in a long-term bull market.
The pricing of commodities is global, and it depends on the global supply and demand structure, especially for large varieties, the prices of different regions will not vary too much. The rise of this round of commodities has a close relationship with the current global economic pattern and has a profound inherent logic.
Let's take a look at gold first. Precious metals, represented by gold, operate in a long-term bull market. Historically, every long-term bull market in gold has been linked to dollar credit problems. In history, the starting points of the three great bull markets of gold are the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001, the accelerated evolution of global changes in the past century after 2018, frequent geopolitical shocks and so on. With the blessing of medium-and long-term factors, there have been many short-term accelerators since 2024. The law of history shows that as long as the Fed starts the cycle of interest rate cuts, the probability of gold rising is almost certain. In the two cycles of Fed interest rate cuts since 2000, gold has emerged from the bull market, with gold prices peaking after the Fed's last rate cut. At the same time, the current frequent geopolitical conflicts, the central bank continued to buy gold and other factors are also providing new upward momentum for gold prices.
Let's take another look at the bull market of industrial products represented by non-ferrous metals. The recovery of global demand and the shortage of upstream supply are the common logic of rising prices of industrial products represented by non-ferrous metals. Another important reason is driven by a new round of technological progress represented by AI and new energy, especially with the accelerated development of AI since 2023, the demand for copper, tin and other metals in computing infrastructure and its energy supply system is expected to increase significantly. Some people say that the end of science and technology is resources, which is not without reason. The acceleration of the conversion between new and old kinetic energy in China is also the product of scientific and technological progress. although real estate investment continues to grow negatively, suppressing steel demand, electronics, automobiles, and new energy sources maintain a rapid growth rate, resulting in a new demand for copper, zinc and tin, including silver. The rapid development of new productivity is likely to exceed the demand for old kinetic energy in the future.
Looking to the future, the manufacturing boom will boost the demand for upstream resource goods. Commodities represented by non-ferrous metals and crude oil will remain bullish as a whole. Upstream resource products are relatively scarce investment opportunities with relative deterministic logic.
Configure the resource topic ETF at the right time
For ordinary investors, direct participation in the commodity futures market is too risky and difficult to grasp. A more reasonable way is to configure resource-themed ETF products.
Resource-themed ETF products are roughly divided into two categories, one is to invest in commodity futures, whose performance is basically equal to the increase of linked commodities, belonging to commodity ETF, such as soybean meal ETF (159985), gold ETF Huaxia (518850), etc.; the other is to track the stock market resource index, invest in resources listed companies, belong to stock ETF, such as gold stock ETF (159562), non-ferrous 50ETF (516650) and so on.
Both types of ETF products can share the benefits of rising commodity markets. Because generally speaking, the rise in the price of resource goods will benefit the relevant listed companies. Take the non-ferrous metal plate as an example, there is a strong correlation between its relative income and the trend of commodity prices. During the period of rising non-ferrous metal prices, the fundamentals of the relevant plates will probably improve at the same time.
For resources listed companies, the greater the increase in product prices and the longer the duration, the higher the elasticity of their profits. In a nutshell, in the early days of the commodity market rise, the profit of investing in commodity ETF is reflected more quickly. In the middle and later stages of the rise of the commodity market, the profits of listed companies in related industries will be effectively released, the increase in stock prices may be more prominent, and there will be more room for stock ETF to rise in related industries.
Gold stock ETF (159562) has risen 43.55% in the last 60 days, while non-ferrous 50ETF (516650) has risen 31.81%, according to Wind. It can be seen that the rise of the resource stock ETF has kept pace with the rise of resource prices.
If the rise of the commodity market continues and deepens further in the future, listed companies in relevant sectors will also further benefit, and the allocation of resource theme ETF is timely.