Source: Wanlian Securities Research Institute
Main points of investment:
The overall operating performance of 24Q1 listed companies is under pressure, and the growth rate of revenue and profit turns negative: as of May 7, 2024, the quarterly report data for 2024 have been disclosed.GoldennuggetpokerThe performance of A-share listed companies has weakened, and their profitability is inferior to that of the same period in 2023. From the perspective of revenue, the revenue of all A-share listed companies decreased by 1% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.Goldennuggetpoker.04%. In terms of profit level, the net profit of all A-share listed companies in the first quarter decreased by 4.07% compared with the same period last year. The profit performance of the 24Q1 gem was bright, while the decline in the return net profit of the science and technology sector narrowed: in terms of revenue, in terms of revenue, the revenue performance of the A-share main wide-band index in the first quarter of 2024 was poor, of which the CSI 300 performed relatively well, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7 per cent. Judging from the changes in revenue growth, the revenue growth rate of the Shanghai 50 index rebounded slightly 0.49pct in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, and the revenue decline narrowed to 1.32 per cent. In terms of the growth rate of homed net profit, the performance of the gem index is relatively bright, with the net profit increased by 6.82% in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year. Judging from the changes in the growth rate of homed net profit, the growth rate of homed net profit of Northern Securities A shares, Kechuang 50 and China Securities 500 rebounded 6.29pct, 3.66pct and 1.85pct to-14.53%,-8.89% and-13.35% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2023.
Downstream industry revenue and profit growth performance is relatively good: sub-sector point of view, revenue growth, in the Shenwan first-level industry, 2024Q1 social services (17.60%), electronics (12.16%) industry revenue growth ranked top. Cyclical sector industry performance generally fell compared with the same period last year, including non-bank finance (- 27.02%) and real estate (- 13.69%) Q1 revenue fell significantly compared with the same period last year. In the upstream industry, with the exception of petroleum and petrochemical (5.74%), the revenue growth rate of the other industries has slowed down. Most of the downstream industries and TMT industries achieved revenue growth. The growth rate of net profit of each industry is different, and the performance of the middle and downstream industries is relatively good, with social services (58.35%) and light industrial manufacturing (47.32%) Q1 leading the growth rate of net profit, which is higher than that of Q1 in 2023 by 215.47pct and 74.17pct respectively. The TMT sector showed a divergent performance in terms of net profit growth, with the electronics industry performing brightly, rising 109.23pct to 52.87 per cent compared with the same period last year, while profit growth in the computer industry slowed to-94.66 per cent compared with 2023Q1. The net profit of upstream industries was mostly negative, while that of construction materials, iron and steel, coal and basic chemical industries all decreased compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of Q1 home net profit of comprehensive industry in 2024 was at the bottom, down 622.29% from the same period last year.
The profitability of most industries has weakened and ROE still needs to be repaired: in the first quarter of 2024, the ROE of most emergency-rated industries fell compared with the same period last year. Among them, banks in the cyclical industry (3.00%), food and beverage in the downstream industry (2.98%) and beauty care (2.11%) are among the highest in the industry. The return on equity of the real estate (- 2.20%) industry in the cyclical industry ranks at the bottom.
As the domestic economy continues to pick up, driven by a series of "trade-in" policies, the demand for industrial equipment and consumer goods in downstream industries is expected to be released. At the same time, China will speed up the development of new productive forces and cultivate new growth momentum, and the prosperity of the growth sector may gradually improve. It is expected that overall, the profitability of A-share listed companies is expected to pick up quarter by quarter. Structurally, the overall performance of the industry in the middle and lower reaches and the relatively excellent performance of earnings quality are expected to lead to the improvement of market expectations.
It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) the performance of the industry in the middle and lower reaches has improved greatly, paying attention to the opportunities of light industry manufacturing, social services and other industries; (2) in the growth track, select electronics, communications and other industries with better performance in the field of TMT, and pay attention to industrial support policies, technological breakthroughs and commercialization.
Risk factors: changes in regulatory policies; lower-than-expected domestic economic growth; slow repair of corporate profits; increased geopolitical risks.