Real estate "trade-in" is expected to promote a faster balance between supply and demand of real estate. After the Politburo meeting was set in April.Doubledowncasinofreespins2022The urban scope and policy of "trade-in" for real estate is expected to increase, and exert a greater impact on the balance of real estate supply and demand through direct consumption of inventory. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the scale and pricing of reserves, as well as the support of the central government's long-term low-cost funds. We estimate that 10% of the cities with high inventory consumption need to invest 0% of the 30% evidence of inventory for sale.Doubledowncasinofreespins2022.56-1Doubledowncasinofreespins2022. 68 trillion yuan in acquisition funds. Key recommendations: 1) A-share development: investment promotion Shekou, urban construction development, Binjiang Group, Jianfa sharesDoubledowncasinofreespins20222) Hong Kong stock development: Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, China overseas Development, Longhu Group, Yuexiu Real Estate; 3) property Management Company: China Resources Vientiane Life, Poly property, everything Cloud, Investment accumulation, Binjiang Service. What are the modes of "trading old for new" in real estate? The current round of real estate inventory grasp or housing "trade-in", at present, more than 30 cities have spontaneously introduced relevant policies, which can be divided into three models: government storage, housing exchange subsidies, and optimized transactions. Government acquisition and storage refers to the purchase of second-hand housing held by housing enterprises or urban investment platforms, and at the same time enables residents to exchange for new commercial housing; housing exchange subsidy means that the local government gives certain subsidies to residents who complete two transactions of "selling old" and "buying new" within the prescribed time limit; optimization transaction means that local governments coordinate housing enterprises and intermediary agencies to provide transaction facilities such as termination protection period and housing promotion for housing "trade-in". From the perspective of policy development, the policy intensity of "trade-in" housing and the urban energy level have been improved since April of 24 years. How to implement the government's collection and storage, and what is the effect of the pilot project? Zhengzhou and Nanjing both launched the "trade-in" mode of government collection and storage in April, which attracted more attention in the market because of the high energy level and large scale of storage in the city. We summed up the focus of the government purchase and storage programs of the two cities, generally speaking, Zhengzhou plan has a greater impact on market supply and demand, for the exchange of new housing access standards are relatively loose, but developed a more stringent housing acquisition standards. The government storage model of Zhengzhou and Nanjing has received a positive response from local residents: Zhengzhou has applied for 368 applications by the end of April, of which 194 are eligible for acquisition. 38.8% of the pilot quota was completed ahead of schedule and promoted in the city on May 10, accounting for 38.8% of the pilot quota. In Nanjing, from April 27 to May 5, WeChat Mini Programs "Ning Xin" platform registered intention to register 3610 groups, and the initial trial met the requirements of 2947 groups. The follow-up focus of "trade-in" for real estate, especially how much money will it cost for the government to collect and store it? The real estate "trade-in" is still in the pilot stage of implementing policies due to the city, and there are great differences in local models, so we still need to pay attention to: 1. The scale of collection and storage and the way of pricing affect the final effect-- from the point of view of the impact on the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, government purchase and deposit > housing exchange subsidy > facilitate transactions, but the corresponding financial burden on local finance is also from big to small. If the government purchase and reserve model is promoted, there are still many details to be discussed, such as the scale of acquisition, the standard of acquisition, the standard of new house exchange and so on. How to fairly price second-hand housing is a major difficulty of this model; 2. The improvement of the model requires the help of long-term low-cost funds-local financial resources are limited, and we need to pay attention to whether there are policy banks or other central funds to provide further support for local collection and storage. To consume 10% of the inventory for sale in high-inventory cities with a removal period of more than 18 months (corresponding to a reduction in the elimination period by 10%), we estimate that we need to invest RMB 0.56-1.68 trillion in the acquisition of second-hand housing. Risk tips: industry policies, industry fundamentals downward, some real estate business risks. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.