The bidding volume of the first EMU in 24 years exceeded that of 23 years.BurgertimeIn the first half of the year, the cumulative increase in EMU bidding reached 60% compared with the same period last year. On May 10, 2024, China Railway Group issued a "bidding announcement for the procurement project of Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU at 350 km / h". The scope of bidding includes 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (8 marshalling), 132 sets of quantity; 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration alpine EMU (8 marshalling), quantity 13 groups Speed 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (17 groups), the number of 20 groups (10 trains). The tender volume of the EMU is equivalent to about 165 standard columns (8 cars are grouped into 1 standard column and 17 long groups are calculated according to 2 standards), and the bidding volume exceeds expectations. We believe that compared with the bidding volume of 164 standard EMU in 23 years, the bidding volume of the first EMU in 24 years has exceeded that of last year. Considering that the tender for EMU is still expected to be carried out in the second half of the year (103 in the first half of 23 and 61 in the second half of the year), the further growth of the tender volume of EMU in the whole of 24 years has become a foregone conclusion. Among them, the number of tenders invited in the first half of 24 was 165 columns, compared with 103 in the first half of 23 years, a cumulative increase of 60% over the same period last year. China Railway Group turned losses to profits in 23 years, railway investment maintained good growth in 24 years, and the prosperity of the industry continued to heat up on April 30. On April 30, China Railway Group disclosed its financial statements for 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. In 2023, China Railway Group achieved an operating income of 1.2454 trillion yuan, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.Burgertime.5%, with a net profit of 3.3 billion yuan, turning losses into profits; in the first quarter of 2024, the China Railway Group achieved an operating income of 283.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2 percent over the same period last year. From January to April 2024, China's railway investment in fixed assets totaled 184.9 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5 percent over the same period last year. High-quality and efficient railway construction was promoted, and the construction of a modern railway infrastructure system was accelerated. From January to March 2024, 1.01 billion passengers were sent by railways across the country, an increase of 28.5 percent over the same period last year. We believe that the substantial increase in EMU bidding volume is due to the strong passenger demand brought about by the rapid growth of railway passenger flow; the improvement of the financial situation of the National Railway Group and the sustained growth of railway investment provide sufficient ammunition for the increase in the procurement of railway equipment; in the future, railway investment is expected to maintain the current good growth rate, and the prosperity of the industry will continue to heat up. The policy promotes the upgrading of the rail transit equipment industry, and old diesel locomotives are expected to be updated on a large scale. On March 1, 2024, the executive meeting of the State Council examined and approved the "Action Plan for promoting large-scale equipment upgrading and Consumer goods Trade-in". Among them, transportation equipment is one of the areas of renewal and transformation directly mentioned in the plan, which is expected to be supported by follow-up supporting policies. On February 28, 2024, Fei Dongbin, director of the State Railway Administration, mentioned at a press conference on the modernization of high-quality transportation development services provided by the New Office of the State Council that he would strive to achieve the basic elimination of old diesel locomotives by 2027. The statement of the relevant leaders confirmed the closed loop of the equipment renewal policy at the level of the railway equipment industry. According to the statistical bulletin of the National Railway Group in 2023, the number of railway locomotives in China was 22400 by the end of 2023, of which 7800 were diesel locomotives, accounting for 34.7%. If the existing old diesel locomotives are basically eliminated by 2027, it will bring considerable demand for locomotive renewal; through improving subsidies, to promote new energy locomotives such as electric locomotives to replace diesel locomotives, locomotives and other related equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit. With the rapid growth of bidding for advanced repair of EMU, the demand for maintenance and maintenance of EMU will continue to increase. On March 4, 2024, CRRC issued a contract announcement that the amount of advanced repair contract for EMU was 14.78 billion yuan. The company announced a total of 14.28 billion yuan for advanced maintenance contract for EMU in January and October 2023, respectively. The contract amount of the EMU advanced repair order announced by the company has exceeded the total amount announced in 2023; new orders are still expected to be signed in the future to expand the annual order growth rate. We believe that with the rapid growth of EMU entering the intensive overhaul period during the 12th five-year Plan period, the maintenance demand of EMU after cycle will continue to increase in the future, especially the demand for advanced repair represented by level 5 repair will grow rapidly. related equipment manufacturers will benefit significantly. Investment suggestion: we believe that the rail transit equipment industry will directly benefit from the growth of railway investment, the growth of EMU demand brought about by the recovery of passenger flow, as well as the increased demand for locomotive renewal and EMU maintenance. From the point of view of relevant equipment suppliers, time Electric, China CRRC and China General number are recommended, and it is suggested to pay attention to traffic control technology and thinking control. Risk analysis: the railway investment is not as strong as expected, the renewal rhythm of old locomotives is not as expected, and the bidding for maintenance and maintenance of rail transit equipment is not as expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
