SourceWcqualifiersasia: win Wande
Global commodities once again ushered in a rally!
The international copper price rose 4% on Friday.Wcqualifiersasia.21% was at $5.0830 / lb, rising as high as $5.1280 / lb on Wednesday, an all-time high, up 9.01% this week.
COMEX silver rose 6.36% to $31.775 an ounce for the first time in more than a decade.
The rally has made silver one of the brightest major commodities so far this year, up more than 31 per cent. Since the beginning of this year, precious metal prices have been setting new record highs. In addition, the prices of energy and industrial metals such as crude oil, tin and nickel are also popular among large categories of assets.
/ / supply and demand are tightening, and the supply gap of silver will expand this year.
According to the data released by the World Silver Association, the total global demand for silver in 2023 is 35551 tons, with a silver gap of about 4400 tons. Driven by the recovery of mineral silver production in 2024, the total global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% by 3% to more than 31700 tons; the total demand for silver is expected to increase by 1% to more than 36700 tons; and the gap between supply and demand will remain high, reaching about 5000 tons.
TD Securities believes that given the current pace of demand, the London Bullion Market Association's inventory could be exhausted in the next two years.
HSBC, on the other hand, believes that global demand for silver coins and bars will decline, and many retail investors have bought large amounts of silver coins and bars in the past few years and are not interested in further increasing their holdings. High silver prices have prompted more silver coins and bars to flow into the secondary market, reducing the demand for newly minted silver coins and bars. Although global inflation still exists, it is gradually easing. The outlook for silver demand in the jewelry industry is not optimistic. Silver supply is less than demand and its role is to help prevent silver prices from falling sharply, but not enough to support a long-term bull market.
/ / the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in September is nearly 70%. Does the major supercycle begin? / /
Weaker-than-expected economic data on Wednesday pushed stocks to record highs and sparked speculation about when the Fed was prepared to start cutting interest rates. Traders now expect about a 70 per cent chance of a US interest rate cut in September, according to the CME Fed Watch tool (FedWatch Tool). This marks a big increase compared with earlier this week.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures said that at present, US inflation is sticky and expectations of interest rate cuts in the second quarter have basically failed, but the latest inflation in April cooled, non-farm payrolls data were lower than expected, unemployment rose and wage growth slowed. The combination of an unexpected rise in new claims and weak retail sales have heightened market expectations of a Fed rate cut in the third quarter. Focus on whether the short-term rebound can continue.
Marko Kolanovic, a prominent quantitative analyst at JPMorgan, said a new commodities "supercycle" had begun. This means that commodity prices will face a new upward trend.
He said it would be the fifth so-called supercycle in the past 100 years, which began in 1996 and peaked in 2008 thanks to factors such as the rise of China, the recovery of the US economy and a weaker dollar. Commodities then experienced 12 years of shock and decline, during which there was a lack of upward momentum due to factors such as an oversupply of shale oil and a rising dollar, and last year's COVID-19 epidemic had a huge impact on crude oil demand.