Stock index:
Yesterday, the A-share market was mixed, and Wind all-A rose 0.Bingoquest.15%, with a turnover of 830 billion yuan. In the corresponding index of stock index futures, the small-cap index performed better, with CSI 1000 up 0.Bingoquest.56%, CSI 500 down 0.08%, CSI 300 down 0.21%, SSE 50 down 0.39%. The recent correction of the index is that the market is concerned about the fundamental data in the short term.BingoquestFeedback, but does not change the medium-and long-term index reboundBingoquestThe trend. Recently, the Ministry of Finance announced arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, involving 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, which began in mid-late May. Earlier, news came from some cities that real estate purchase restrictions had been relaxed. The market as a whole is moving towards optimistic expectations. Before the festival, the Politburo meeting announced that the third Plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee would be held in July this year, and the market had high expectations for the third Plenary session. Medium-and long-term solutions to many topics of market concern, including real estate and debt reduction, are expected to be discussed at the meeting, which is more important for raising the medium-and long-term valuation center of the A-share market. Combined with the fact that the central bank said that buying treasury bonds in the secondary market is one of the monetary policy options, market expectations for medium-and long-term inflation have risen. With the recent strong performance of China's equity assets under the policy support, we believe that this optimism will continue to be transmitted. In terms of basis difference, IM2405 basis difference-14.68 ~ IC2405 basis difference-12.14 ~ IF2405 basis difference-1.45 ~ IH2405 basis difference 0.86.
National debt:
Treasury bond futures collectively closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.11% and the 10-year main contract up 0.02%. The 5-year main contract was up 0.03% and the 2-year main contract was up 0.01%. In terms of the open market, the central bank carried out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the central bank made a net investment of 0 billion yuan that day. Most of the interbank pledge repo rates fell. The 1-day variety was 1.761%, down 1.77 basis points, and the 7-day variety was 1.8402%, down 0.83 basis points. The Ministry of Finance announced the relevant arrangements for the issuance of general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024, including ultra-long-term special treasury bonds with a maturity of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years. It decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14. The way of issuance is open and market-oriented, which is in line with market expectations. Only a 30-year treasury bond will be issued on December 6. it is estimated that the general issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds this year will be 163 billion yuan, plus 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and the total supply of ultra-long-term treasury bonds in 2024 will increase by 795 billion yuan over last year. As the general ultra-long-term treasury bonds will be issued less in the future, the total supply increment of ultra-long-term treasury bonds is slightly lower than expected. The phased impact of the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds on liquidity is relatively limited, and bond yields of each maturity showed varying degrees of decline yesterday. In the short term, under the background of stable capital, weak economic repair and the landing of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the long-end of treasury bonds will be more bearish than the short-end, and the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen.
Precious metals:
Gold fluctuated higher overnight. Us PPI rose 2.2 per cent in April from a year earlier, a 12-month high, and the market continued to cut interest rate expectations. Mr Powell said in a speech last night that first-quarter inflation data had undermined his confidence, making it impossible for the Fed to say whether or when it would be able to cut interest rates, waiting for more evidence. However, gold still performed strongly under the bearish data last night, which may be based on a reflection of the lower-than-expected Fed cpi data for April to be released tonight, but the data itself is fraught with uncertainty and it is too early to believe that gold is rallying again. The probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in June has risen to more than 90%, and the market is basically fully priced, and the short-term focus of the market may shift to geopolitical tensions, which also gives strong support to gold prices.