Core viewpoints
Asset class
Core viewpoints
Rights and interests
After the rebound of equity assets or box shock
Fixed collection
The game between the supply of government debt and the easing of monetary policy
Bulk commodities
Wide range volatility of crude oil, short-term adjustment of gold, or medium-and long-term bullish
exchange rate
Two-way fluctuation of RMB
MacroscopicHoldemstrategyThe economy showed a structural recovery in the first quarter
The indicators of the US economic climate are still good, and inflation may turn upwards again, but the unemployment rate has rebounded, the Fed's position is partial to pigeon, and the dollar has changed from strong to volatile.HoldemstrategyOverseas demand still boosts China's exports; real GDP growth in the first quarter was 5.Holdemstrategy.3%, in terms of demand, export performance is good; investment-side manufacturing is strong, infrastructure is stable, real estate investment is further down, consumption growth rate is high but contribution tends to decline; in terms of production, the second industry is strong, but the third industry is weak; in terms of volume and price, the real growth rate is better than the nominal growth rate; from the high-frequency indicators, exports may be weak in the short term; new home sales remain low, while second-hand housing sales fall at a high level. Social zero growth rate has also weakened, and the progress of government debt supply is still lagging behind.
Monetary policy: the Politburo meeting proposed that fiscal efforts should be accelerated and monetary policy coordinated to boost risk appetite.
The meeting of the political Bureau proposed that it is necessary to rely on forward efforts to effectively implement the established macro policies and implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of financial expenditure, and ensure that the grass-roots "three guarantees" are spent in full and on time. In the aspect of monetary policy, it is proposed that policy tools such as interest rate and deposit reserve ratio should be used flexibly to increase support to the real economy and reduce the cost of social comprehensive financing. The decision to hold the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee in July is generally conducive to boosting risk appetite. For real estate, it is proposed to comprehensively study the policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing.
Rights and interests: box concussion after equity assets hit bottom and rebounded
Investment strategy: the index has entered a narrow shock stage, on the one hand, due to the clearing of trading risk and the overall valuation or a high margin of safety, the downside risk of the index may be relatively small. On the other hand, because the market is still worried about the impact of real estate on the short-term economy and there are no signs of easing in the overall liquidity of the market before the Fed cut interest rates, the momentum for a sharp upward index is not sufficient. Next, we will pay more attention to the landing of central budget projects and the implementation of policies such as equipment renewal and double control of energy consumption. Before the policy falls to the ground, we will still focus on stocks with low valuations, good patterns and strong competitiveness, especially some central state-owned enterprises with sufficient incentives, and will still lay out some growth assets that have fallen below their long-term value on the left. waiting for the opportunity to increase growth on the right.
Fixed Collection: a Game between the supply of Government debt and the loosening of Monetary Policy
With the higher-than-expected economic data in the first quarter, the central bank warned of the risk of long-end interest rates, which rebounded rapidly after hitting new lows recently, while the stock market benefited from an improvement in the rebalancing of international capital and the price-to-performance ratio of stocks and bonds tended to be balanced. The Politburo meeting proposed that the issuance of government bonds should be accelerated, real estate should pay attention to inventory and demand side, and the timing of the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee should be set, which will boost stable growth and risk appetite. At the same time, the meeting of the Politburo proposed that monetary policy should flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio. Under the shock of the US dollar and the rebalancing of international capital, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has been reduced, and a window has been created for monetary easing. Under the superposition of many factors, the bond market may be somewhat volatile in the near future.
In terms of cash / short-term debt, the arbitrage value and risk of short-term debt in the current position may be relatively limited, and the easing of RMB exchange rate pressure may lead to the expectation of reserve reduction, when the value of short-term debt is expected to recover.
In terms of interest rates, the central bank has been paying attention to the long-end interest rates recently, and the long-end interest rates do deviate from the nominal and actual performance of GDP, mainly because: 1) the nominal GDP deviates from the real GDP, and the price index shows the characteristic of deflation; 2) the nominal GDP deviates from the financial performance of listed companies in the first quarter; 3) the economic performance deviates from the debt cycle, and the long-end interest rate performance is more related to the debt cycle. 4) when the financial allocator turns to the trader, the proportion of the bond market decreases, which is easy to increase the fluctuation. After adjustment, the current extreme pricing of long-end interest rates has been repaired. In May, we mainly observed the coordination between the acceleration of government bond issuance and monetary policy; interest rates are low and fluctuating, so we need to pay attention to the impact of financial management behavior and stock-debt seesaw effect on the bond market.
In terms of credit, the current term and credit spreads are compressed, and in the case of volatile interest rates, the value of credit coupons is also relatively limited, so it is necessary to continue to improve the liquidity of credit positions.
In terms of convertible bonds, the current absolute price of convertible bonds is still at the low level since 2020, but the conversion premium rate and implied volatility are still at the medium to high level since 2020, but if the increase in risk appetite and stock market rebound can continue, it is necessary to pay attention to the allocation value of convertible bonds at the current time.
In terms of leverage, the behavior of adding leverage into the bond market in the second quarter has further converged, and the income and risk of leverage in the current position may be relatively limited. For example, with the issuance of government bonds, the central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and the arbitrage value may pick up after the cost of capital falls.
Commodities: wide volatility of crude oil, medium-and long-term gold or bullish
Crude oil: wide concussion.
Gold: medium to long-term or bullish, short-term or high consolidation.
Exchange rate: RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions.
Summary of the performance of various types of funds
Product type
Average growth rate of net worth in the past year
Average growth rate of net worth in the past three years
Stock type
-13Holdemstrategy.04%
-19.12%
Mixed type
-11.30%
-18.65%
Bond type
3.12%
9.76%
FOF
-6.66%
-11.11%
Data source: China Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, data as of 2024.04.30, release time: 2024.05.01. The past performance of the fund does not predict its future performance, the fund is risky, investment should be cautious.
(the fund manager does not make any recommendation to the mentioned sector / industry, does not represent any investment advice or recommendation, and does not represent the fund position information or trading direction. )
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