Wang Jinyu, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information Egg Market
[introduction] the stock column continues to rise and the supply of eggs is adequate.ElectronicarcadeThe demand was lower than expected and the price of eggs in the main producing areas fell in April compared with the previous month. The stock may continue to increase in May, the overall demand is weak, the situation of oversupply in the egg market continues, and egg prices may remain low.
The price of eggs fell in April compared with the previous month
The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in April is 3.Electronicarcade.29 yuan per jin, down 4.36% from the previous month and 29.09% from the same period last year. Egg prices declined compared with the previous month, mainly due to the continuous increase in supply and lower-than-expected demand. In addition, the supporting effect of the decline in feed prices on egg prices was also weakened. During the month, the price of eggs showed a "W" trend, the highest price was 3.37 yuan / jin in the middle of the month, the lowest price was 3.21 yuan / jin in the middle and last ten days, and the price difference was 0.16 yuan / jin.
There is an adequate supply of eggs
From the point of view of the newly opened laying hens, the new laying hens opened in April are the fencing seedlings in December 2023, and the breeding units are enthusiastic about the fencing, the chicken seedling sales maintain a high level, and the number of new laying hens is relatively large. From the perspective of eliminated chickens, egg prices were adjusted low in April, profits narrowed, and breeding units were more active in panning chickens. 2.5748 million chickens were eliminated in the sample area, an increase of 17.61% over the previous month. However, the number of eliminated hens is less than the number of newly opened laying hens, and the stock of laying hens increased to 1.24 billion in April, an increase of 0.57% from the previous month.
In terms of laying rate, with the warmer weather, the laying rate of laying hens has increased in most areas. as of the end of April, the laying rate of laying hens in the country's main producing areas during the peak period was 92.52 percent, an increase of 0.37 percentage points compared with the previous month.
With the increase of the stock, the superimposed laying rate increases, and the egg supply is sufficient in April, which has a great negative impact on the egg price.
The demand is lower than expected.
The demand for eggs in April was lower than expected, especially in the southern market with more Rain Water and high humidity, cartons and egg saucers were easy to soften, and it was difficult to store eggs. Downstream traders mostly picked up and kept low inventory on sale, and sales of eggs in the sales area on behalf of the market decreased by 0.52% compared with the same period last year. Most food enterprises produce according to order, and the operating rate of sample enterprises is 64%, which is still lower than that in January.
Egg price center of gravity may remain low in May
The stock continues to increase. Combined with the data of last month's stock base, open production, and the number of chickens washed out, it is inferred that the theoretical stock of laying hens in May was 1.246 billion, an increase of 0.48% over the previous month. By the end of April, the stock of laying hens for more than 450 days accounted for 8.62%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, and the number of layers of suitable age was limited. Therefore, the actual increase in the stock of laying hens in April may be greater than the theoretical value, the supply of eggs is sufficient, and the negative impact of the supply side on egg prices continues.
Demand or overall weakness. In May, only May Day has driven the market demand, and the overall pull is also limited. In addition, with the rise in temperature in the north and south, especially in the south of Rain Water, it is more difficult to store eggs, downstream traders are cautious in participating in the market, and small batch purchases are the main rigid demand. Food factories do not expect high egg prices in the future, and most of them purchase eggs on demand. The overall demand for eggs in May is weak.
Taken together, the stock will continue to rise in May, the supply of eggs will be adequate, while the overall demand side is weak, the egg market may continue the situation of oversupply, and the price center of gravity of eggs may remain low. Within the month, the egg price near the feed cost line, breeding profit space is limited, breeding units look forward to rise, during the egg price or tentative rise, but the extent of increase is also limited. (the above is a personal point of view and is for reference only; if you follow the above action, you will do so at your own risk.)