Newsletter summary
The global shipping volume of wood pulp increased by 3% compared with the previous month.Jackpotcityonlinecasino.91%JackpotcityonlinecasinoThe import volume of wood pulp in China increased by 1. 5% from the previous month.Jackpotcityonlinecasino.58%JackpotcityonlinecasinoThe stock of wood pulp in the port decreased, and the fluctuation of the international market pushed up the cost of pulp. American beans are boosted by concerns about crop losses in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, spot spreads are low, and futures investments need to be cautious. Pig prices are expected to be affected by capacity elimination and demand recovery, supply pressure reduced in the fourth quarter, and long-term prices are optimistic.
Text of news flash
[pulp market dynamic update] Global wood pulp shipments recorded 3.91% month-on-month growth in February 2024 and 12.85% year-on-year growth. China's wood pulp imports rose 1.58% month-on-month in April of the same year, an increase of 8.70% over the same period last year.
The prices of household paper, double adhesive tape and double copper paper remain stable. In production activities, the operating rate of all kinds of paper has increased. At the same time, the total stock of wood pulp in Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin and other ports has decreased. With the frequent production shutdowns and strikes in the international market, coupled with the increased geopolitical risks, the cost of pulp is on the rise.
[new trend of US bean market] overnight US bean contract price rose 1.53% to 1246.75 in July, driven by concerns about crop losses in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state. Heavy rains and floods in the region have affected the transport of goods in Port Rio Grande do Sul, an important port for Brazil's export of soybeans and imports of fertilizers.
According to the weekly crop progress report released by the USDA, the soyabean sowing completion rate in the United States reached 52%, exceeding the previous weekly rate of 35% and the 49% forecast by analysts.
In the first four months of this year, China's imports of soybeans from the United States fell 40% from a year earlier, turning to Brazil to buy more soybeans, according to Chinese customs data. Nevertheless, the market still expects flexibility in Brazilian production, as the specific losses are not clear, and the USDA reported in May that the adjustment to Brazilian production was not obvious, with a reduction of only 1 million tons.
This shows that there are expected differences between the United States and Brazil, which may become the focus of constant speculation in the market. Although the soybean meal futures market is active, the domestic spot market is relatively weak, especially the basis has remained low in recent months. At present, the soybean meal market has entered a seasonal inventory increase cycle.
However, the downward space of the basis has actually been limited. If the space-based spread continues to be unprofitable, multi-base funds may increase. If the price of American beans and the basis of domestic soybean meal rise at the same time, the upward momentum of the market should not be underestimated.
In terms of trading strategy, the price of beautiful beans below 1200 is considered to be on the low side, and the current price has exceeded 1200. Still, there is still some way to go before the market reverses. It is recommended to hold the meal with caution.
[analysis of the prospect of live pig market] the live pig market shows a new upward trend. With the gradual emergence of capacity elimination and the expectation of recovery on the demand side, the supply pressure is expected to decline in the fourth quarter of this year, and the price trend tends to be optimistic. Recently, the prices of feed raw materials corn and soybean meal are also strong, providing cost-side support for pig prices.
In terms of piglet birth, March turned positive month-on-month, which was lower than the same period last year but much higher than in 2022, limiting expectations of a recent rise in contract pig prices. For the recent contract, if Eryu actively enters the market in May, you can pay attention to the opportunity of the empty contract in the high layout 07. On the other hand, if Eryu's mood is general, it is not recommended to short the 07 contract. It is expected that pig prices as a whole will rise in 2024 compared with the same period last year. 11 contracts can focus on the opportunity of multiple layouts in the callback stage, and it is suggested that anti-hedging operation should be carried out in combination with the rhythm of Eryu entrance and the off-peak season of seasonal consumption.